Published On: Wed, Dec 4th, 2019

Commodity outlook: Nickel, natural gas bleed; here’s how others may trade today

Most metals and energy counters were trading with gains on Wednesday amid rising trade tensions and waning hopes of a deal between the US and China.

Trump told reporters in London that he would like to wait until after the 2020 election for the China deal. Besides, fresh US tariffs on Argentina and Brazil, as well as threats of duties on French goods also darkened the mood on equity traders, as a trade war that appeared to be winding down a week ago now looks like it is ramping up.

Precious metals gained up to 0.5 per cent on MCX while base metals, except nickel, gained in the morning trade. Nickel was down 0.71 per cent to Rs 979.40. Natural gas was trading with a heavy cut of 3.34 per cent at Rs 173.70.

Most agri commodities on NCDEX were in the red. Jeera was the biggest loser, down 1.77 per cent at Rs 15,830.

Here is how SMC Global expects commodities to fare today:

Bullion: Bullion counters may continue yesterday’s rally. Gold (Feb) can move higher towards Rs 38,500 while taking support near Rs 38,100 and silver (Mar) can test Rs 45,600 while taking support near Rs 45,000.

Base metals: Base metals may trade sideways to downwards. Copper may dip lower towards Rs 425 while facing resistance near Rs 432. Zinc can dip towards Rs 180 while facing resistance near Rs 185. Lead may trade sideways taking support near Rs 151 and face resistance at Rs 154. Nickel may remain on the weaker side and test Rs 970 while facing resistance at Rs 1,000. Aluminium may recover towards Rs 132 while facing resistance near Rs 135.

Energy: Crude oil may witness some bounceback. Crude oil can recover towards Rs 4,070 while taking support near Rs 3,980. Natural gas can recover towards Rs 182 while taking support near Rs 175.

Spices: Turmeric futures (Dec) are hovering near its yearly low of Rs 5,560 and this bearish trend is likely to get extended towards Rs 5,400. Jeera futures (Dec) are expected to consolidate in the range of Rs 16,000-16,265. Dhaniya futures (Dec) may trade sideways to downwards in the range of Rs 6,400-6,585. Cardamom futures (Dec) are expected to trade sideways in the range of Rs 2,800-2,900.

Oilseeds: Soybean futures (Dec) may continue to face resistance near Rs 4,120-4,125 as the demand is weak. Mustard futures (Dec) will possibly trade with an upside bias towards Rs 4,380-4,390. CPO futures (Dec) would probably make a new lifetime high on the national bourse as it has the potential to test Rs 690. Soy oil futures (Dec) are also expected to trade on a bullish note towards Rs 825-828.

Other commodities: Cotton futures (Dec) may trade sideways to downwards in the range of Rs 18,950-19,100. The short covering in chana futures (Dec) may face resistance near Rs 4,500. Guar seed futures (Dec) may trade with a downside bias in the range of Rs 3,980-4,080, while guar gum futures (Dec) may plunge further towards Rs 7,100.

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